Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252019 191109 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  42.9  44.7  44.6  43.0  39.1  38.1  33.2 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  50.0  43.0  32.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 104.3  99.6  92.9  78.5  41.7  12.1   4.1  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  70.0  71.0  56.0  24.0   6.0 -11.0 -30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  75.0  72.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.2  42.9  44.7  44.6  43.0  39.1  38.1  33.2 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%