Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191112 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    160.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  15.4  16.3  15.1  15.3  18.1  23.2  23.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 111.0 105.0 101.0 104.0 105.0 102.0  92.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   3.0   7.0  11.0   3.0   7.0  14.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.1  15.4  16.3  15.1  15.3  18.1  23.2  23.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        5.5%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.1%       38.2%       27.7%
 30kt / 24h       11.3%       18.5%       14.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       14.6%        8.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        8.0%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.5%       51.5%       36.0%
 55kt / 36h       19.4%       28.3%       23.8%
 55kt / 48h       38.6%       29.5%       34.0%
 70kt / 48h       21.5%       16.4%       18.9%
 65kt / 72h       60.9%       51.8%       56.4%