Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191112 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  17.2  14.3  19.5  24.0  24.4  27.1  20.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 101.0 102.0 103.0 102.0  98.0  91.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  -9.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   9.0   7.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  51.0  49.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.6  17.2  14.3  19.5  24.0  24.4  27.1  20.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        9.9%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       23.3%       47.1%       35.2%
 30kt / 24h       15.6%       26.4%       21.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       24.0%       14.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%       13.5%        9.1%
 45kt / 36h       20.6%       48.9%       34.7%
 55kt / 36h       18.3%       27.4%       22.8%
 55kt / 48h       33.0%       28.0%       30.5%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       13.9%       18.9%
 65kt / 72h       46.9%       25.1%       36.0%