Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191113 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  23.0  23.3  19.1  13.1  11.9  17.6  22.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 103.0 100.0  93.0  87.0  76.0  69.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   8.0   4.0  -4.0  17.0  11.0   0.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  56.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.6  23.0  23.3  19.1  13.1  11.9  17.6  22.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.0%        8.8%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       21.5%       37.9%       29.7%
 30kt / 24h       15.5%       19.7%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       19.1%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       11.5%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       23.2%       40.5%       31.9%
 55kt / 36h       18.4%       21.3%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       27.9%       26.3%       27.1%
 70kt / 48h       21.9%        9.4%       15.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.3%       15.2%       18.8%