Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  22.3  15.6  16.4  21.1  28.2  36.3  41.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  97.0  87.0  82.0  71.0  64.0  66.0  63.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 112.0 109.6 112.0 112.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   3.0  21.0  20.0  -4.0  -3.0   6.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  57.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.2  22.3  15.6  16.4  21.1  28.2  36.3  41.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        2.3%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.3%       15.3%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%        6.9%        6.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        4.7%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%        3.3%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%        8.6%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        5.5%        2.2%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        3.8%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%        0.7%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        1.3%        2.4%