Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191114 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    148.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  16.0   9.9  11.7  17.3  27.3  31.8  35.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  92.0  81.0  70.0  64.0  58.0  60.0  45.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 107.0 104.6 107.0 107.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   7.0  20.0  10.0 -10.0  -1.0  24.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  51.0  56.0  54.0  44.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.3  16.0   9.9  11.7  17.3  27.3  31.8  35.2  N  F  F  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        9.8%       11.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       40.7%       33.5%
 30kt / 24h       23.6%       24.3%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h       22.2%       23.0%       22.6%
 40kt / 24h       22.2%       16.9%       19.5%
 45kt / 36h       24.6%       25.4%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h       18.0%       10.3%       14.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%       11.0%       13.0%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%        2.6%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        1.9%        4.5%