Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0   9.9  12.1  18.2  27.4  33.4  36.1  45.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  81.0  75.0  66.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  45.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        104.6 104.6 107.0 107.0 107.0 110.0 110.0 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  20.0  10.0 -10.0   0.0  24.0  23.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  56.0  53.0  44.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   9.9  12.1  18.2  27.4  33.4  36.1  45.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.0%       15.8%       14.9%
 25kt / 24h       32.5%       49.0%       40.7%
 30kt / 24h       25.7%       35.7%       30.7%
 35kt / 24h       22.6%       35.7%       29.1%
 40kt / 24h       22.6%       22.8%       22.7%
 45kt / 36h       19.3%       27.5%       23.4%
 55kt / 36h       12.8%       13.0%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        9.6%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.3%        2.4%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        1.4%        2.4%