Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    143.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  16.4  22.1  27.5  37.5  52.8  57.8  61.4  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  61.0  52.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         87.0  87.0  87.0  90.0  90.0  80.1  82.3  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -16.0 -25.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   8.0   3.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  55.0  49.0  49.0  45.0  41.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.2  16.4  22.1  27.5  37.5  52.8  57.8  61.4  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       80.4%       69.5%       75.0%
 25kt / 24h       82.8%       82.8%       82.8%
 30kt / 24h       82.8%       82.8%       82.8%
 35kt / 24h       82.8%       82.8%       82.8%
 40kt / 24h       55.2%       71.3%       63.3%
 45kt / 36h       27.6%       34.4%       31.0%
 55kt / 36h       17.2%       20.9%       19.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        5.4%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%