Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    142.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  25.5  26.0  34.2  44.3  55.4  61.5  67.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  44.0  43.0  49.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         64.6  69.3  70.0  70.0  60.1  67.0  67.0  64.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0 -29.0  -7.0   6.0   3.0  13.0  -1.0  -3.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  44.0  37.0  34.0  29.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.7  25.5  26.0  34.2  44.3  55.4  61.5  67.9  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       56.5%       21.6%       39.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.4%       23.3%       25.4%
 30kt / 24h       27.4%       16.3%       21.9%
 35kt / 24h       27.4%       16.3%       21.9%
 40kt / 24h       18.0%        8.8%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h       22.0%        4.7%       13.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        1.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%