Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.5  64.2  64.9  70.7  71.7  68.1  71.2  64.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  31.0  23.0  29.0  31.0  41.0  46.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         57.0  45.7  31.6  43.6  47.9  52.3  57.0  60.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  31.0  28.0  -2.0  -1.0 -17.0 -26.0 -29.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  31.0  26.0  26.0  23.0  23.0  20.0  18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  53.5  64.2  64.9  70.7  71.7  68.1  71.2  64.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%