Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.6  66.1  66.3  66.5  64.6  63.1  63.6  56.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  25.0  28.0  30.0  35.0  47.0  50.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         52.9  38.5  40.5  48.6  55.1  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  25.0  19.0  -5.0 -20.0 -35.0 -39.0 -43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  27.0  25.0  26.0  26.0  25.0  22.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  63.6  66.1  66.3  66.5  64.6  63.1  63.6  56.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%