Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        66.4  67.9  64.7  64.7  66.6  62.6  59.0  48.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  40.0  49.0  51.0  54.0  62.0  57.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         84.4  80.5  92.9  97.3 104.3 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  10.0 -16.0  -7.0  -5.0 -14.0 -38.0 -47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   25.0  26.0  24.0  23.0  18.0  17.0  16.0  16.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  66.4  67.9  64.7  64.7  66.6  62.6  59.0  48.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%