Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262019 191117 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    156.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.7  66.6  60.2  65.1  61.0  49.8  44.0  34.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  44.0  50.0  51.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        102.9 109.6 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -8.0 -14.0  -9.0 -17.0 -38.0 -51.0 -43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   23.0  20.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  17.0  20.0  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  62.7  66.6  60.2  65.1  61.0  49.8  44.0  34.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%