Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191113 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  34.7  32.1  30.9  33.1  35.5  31.2  23.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  112.0 112.0 111.0 107.0 103.0  98.0  94.0  95.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  24.0  37.0  51.0  56.0  52.0  53.0  39.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.4  34.7  32.1  30.9  33.1  35.5  31.2  23.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.7%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       14.9%       11.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        4.1%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        3.1%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%       18.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%        5.0%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%        7.6%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h       11.6%        3.3%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h       44.2%       15.8%       30.0%