Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191113 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  26.8  29.6  28.5  28.0  30.0  31.8  33.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 108.0 106.0 102.0 102.0 101.0 102.0 105.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  63.0  35.0  45.0  29.0  26.0  56.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.9  26.8  29.6  28.5  28.0  30.0  31.8  33.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.7%       12.4%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.3%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       13.7%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        3.3%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       14.4%        7.0%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h       12.2%        2.1%        7.1%
 65kt / 72h       48.7%       10.5%       29.6%