Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    127.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  26.0  23.8  20.0  21.6  25.2  27.9  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 106.0 105.0 102.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  72.0  64.0  68.0  62.0  49.0  63.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.9  26.0  23.8  20.0  21.6  25.2  27.9  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.6%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       14.8%       28.2%       21.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%        9.3%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        9.3%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        5.4%        3.2%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%       34.0%       24.0%
 55kt / 36h        9.0%       13.9%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       35.3%       22.8%       29.0%
 70kt / 48h       23.3%        9.0%       16.2%
 65kt / 72h       60.1%       26.6%       43.4%