Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191114 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    126.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  19.5  14.9  12.7  14.1  16.8  16.4  14.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0 101.0  96.0  92.0  92.0  93.0  89.0  88.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  55.0  73.0  88.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.9  19.5  14.9  12.7  14.1  16.8  16.4  14.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        3.5%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       39.5%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.1%       17.2%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       17.2%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        9.5%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h       24.6%       52.2%       38.4%
 55kt / 36h       17.4%       29.6%       23.5%
 55kt / 48h       49.9%       46.5%       48.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.6%       25.6%       25.6%
 65kt / 72h       44.3%       46.9%       45.6%