Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  19.4  16.7  14.7  17.6  20.8  20.2  18.3  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  96.0  97.0  95.0  96.0  93.0  84.0  85.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  66.0  67.0  58.0  47.0  37.0  43.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.8  19.4  16.7  14.7  17.6  20.8  20.2  18.3  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        4.0%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       22.4%       43.2%       32.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       21.4%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       21.4%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       10.6%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h       18.9%       52.9%       35.9%
 55kt / 36h       12.5%       31.0%       21.8%
 55kt / 48h       47.0%       40.7%       43.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.2%       20.8%       21.5%
 65kt / 72h       59.7%       34.8%       47.2%