Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    125.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.9  21.3  19.1  19.1  19.3  22.3  21.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  95.0  94.0  93.0  94.0  94.0  85.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0  74.0  56.0  61.0  62.0  49.0  37.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.6  16.9  21.3  19.1  19.1  19.3  22.3  21.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        3.6%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       17.3%       34.2%       25.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       13.3%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       13.3%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        7.3%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h       18.2%       43.4%       30.8%
 55kt / 36h       12.1%       21.1%       16.6%
 55kt / 48h       40.8%       31.3%       36.0%
 70kt / 48h       22.1%       14.4%       18.3%
 65kt / 72h       49.4%       16.5%       32.9%