Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  18.0  24.7  21.0  19.2  20.2  18.9  19.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  105.0 102.0  99.0  98.0  94.0  91.0  85.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  61.0  32.0  34.0  33.0   9.0  11.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.1  18.0  24.7  21.0  19.2  20.2  18.9  19.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        8.2%        5.6%
 25kt / 24h       24.7%       44.5%       34.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       23.4%       18.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       23.4%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       12.8%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%       47.2%       32.5%
 55kt / 36h       12.4%       26.0%       19.2%
 55kt / 48h       35.3%       34.2%       34.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       15.1%       19.5%
 65kt / 72h       35.5%       11.1%       23.3%