Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191116 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  21.9  15.3  18.6  15.4  18.5  23.9  31.3  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0  97.0  97.0  94.0  93.0  89.0  81.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  16.0  35.0  18.0   6.0  12.0  25.0   0.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.2  21.9  15.3  18.6  15.4  18.5  23.9  31.3  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.5%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       33.2%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.0%       13.8%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       13.1%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        7.7%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.5%       37.1%       27.8%
 55kt / 36h       14.0%       16.7%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       28.0%       19.7%       23.9%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%        7.4%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       23.5%        4.7%       14.1%