Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191116 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  15.3  15.5  15.8  15.3  21.2  31.9  39.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  97.0  97.0  93.0  89.0  88.0  78.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  29.0  17.0  15.0   7.0  28.0  13.0  13.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.8  15.3  15.5  15.8  15.3  21.2  31.9  39.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        7.3%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.1%       43.7%       32.4%
 30kt / 24h       12.6%       22.5%       17.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       22.5%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%       12.4%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       20.6%       47.1%       33.9%
 55kt / 36h       16.3%       26.3%       21.3%
 55kt / 48h       26.7%       22.6%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h       21.8%        8.6%       15.2%
 65kt / 72h       16.8%        4.8%       10.8%