Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    124.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  16.9  21.1  22.5  28.9  39.3  42.6  46.8  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  87.0  78.0  67.0  60.0  47.0  40.0  41.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 105.1 102.9  92.4  86.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  15.0   8.0  21.0  29.0  29.0  22.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  47.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.6  16.9  21.1  22.5  28.9  39.3  42.6  46.8  F  F  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.5%       34.0%       35.3%
 25kt / 24h       53.1%       66.8%       60.0%
 30kt / 24h       44.0%       55.3%       49.7%
 35kt / 24h       43.0%       55.3%       49.2%
 40kt / 24h       16.2%       40.3%       28.3%
 45kt / 36h       25.3%       45.8%       35.5%
 55kt / 36h       19.7%       28.6%       24.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.9%        7.8%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        4.0%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        3.5%        4.6%