Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191118 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  26.9  35.4  38.6  40.9  48.3  48.6  44.7  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  48.0  37.0  31.0  33.0  55.0  61.0  52.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.1  86.5  74.8  64.3  64.3  95.1 105.0 105.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  35.0  21.0  38.0  42.0  15.0  21.0  15.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  46.0  43.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  26.9  35.4  38.6  40.9  48.3  48.6  44.7  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.4%       14.9%       16.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       14.8%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%        7.6%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%        7.6%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        3.1%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%        5.0%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%