Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191118 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  31.0  34.2  37.7  41.8  41.3  35.4  33.4  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  46.0  31.0  35.0  32.0  58.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.7  75.5  59.3  54.6  53.0  83.6 100.0 100.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  61.0  53.0  24.0   7.0   7.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.9  31.0  34.2  37.7  41.8  41.3  35.4  33.4  N  U  U  U VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.7%       24.0%       32.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.7%       20.7%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h       14.4%       13.3%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.7%       13.3%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h        6.1%        5.2%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        7.9%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        3.4%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%