Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191119 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.9  47.7  48.7  44.2  39.0  34.3  26.2  22.6 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  30.0   0.0  51.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         58.5  44.3  36.5  68.6  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  57.0  23.0  13.0  -1.0 -12.0  -1.0 -24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  45.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  39.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.9  47.7  48.7  44.2  39.0  34.3  26.2  22.6 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        0.6%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%