Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191119 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.9  47.4  42.4  43.1  29.1  24.2  19.4  20.5 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  46.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.5  54.4  65.5  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  21.0  10.0 -12.0   0.0 -28.0 -37.0  -1.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  44.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  57.9  47.4  42.4  43.1  29.1  24.2  19.4  20.5 VU VU VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%