Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272019 191121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    118.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.7  17.8  17.0  16.5  19.3  17.4  16.6  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   7.0  15.0  39.0  57.0  57.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        108.0 106.2 106.2 108.0 119.4 130.1 132.3 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  10.0  24.0   2.0  12.0  22.0  13.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  47.0  51.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.2  22.7  17.8  17.0  16.5  19.3  17.4  16.6  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        0.8%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        0.6%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%        2.4%        5.3%