Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282019 191120 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  18.4  23.4  28.3  28.0  33.8  39.6  46.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  90.0  81.0  69.0  59.0  47.0  43.0  33.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 125.1 118.6 114.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  45.0  58.0  53.0  56.0  63.0  71.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.5  18.4  23.4  28.3  28.0  33.8  39.6  46.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        5.1%        4.2%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       29.9%       22.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       10.7%        9.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       10.7%        6.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        5.9%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       27.1%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.2%       10.7%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        5.9%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%        2.8%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.9%        1.9%        4.4%