Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282019 191120 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  38.6  41.5  47.6  51.5  56.8  68.8  72.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         76.2  66.1  61.5  58.6  57.2  57.2  57.2  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  65.0  72.0  68.0  46.0  41.0  24.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.8  38.6  41.5  47.6  51.5  56.8  68.8  72.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        2.7%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        2.9%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        1.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        1.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%