Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP282019 191121 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    124.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  39.3  49.4  51.7  49.2  61.3  66.0  77.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.0  58.0  55.0  52.2  50.8  50.8  49.4  45.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  67.0  80.0  62.0  38.0  35.0  42.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  45.0  44.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  35.6  39.3  49.4  51.7  49.2  61.3  66.0  77.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        1.7%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%