Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    149.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  30.8  30.4  32.5  39.1  40.6  37.8  36.4  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   143.0 147.0 161.0 119.0 108.0  90.0  60.0  49.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  69.0  67.0  59.0  61.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  30.8  30.4  32.5  39.1  40.6  37.8  36.4  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        4.8%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       24.8%       37.1%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       15.5%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       15.5%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        8.1%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.5%       35.1%       23.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%       13.9%        9.4%
 55kt / 48h       14.6%       12.8%       13.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%        6.0%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h       15.5%        6.7%       11.1%