Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191126 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  27.3  30.7  30.2  28.8  32.9  38.7  44.5  N  N  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   175.0 150.0 118.0  96.0  67.0  42.0  45.0  24.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.5  27.3  30.7  30.2  28.8  32.9  38.7  44.5  N  N  U  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        7.7%        8.5%
 25kt / 24h       33.7%       43.6%       38.6%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       23.4%       19.8%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       23.4%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       13.8%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.0%       39.5%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.2%       17.9%       13.6%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%       14.5%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h        8.3%        5.2%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%        3.1%        5.2%