Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191127 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.6  27.0  27.0  32.1  33.6  31.9  33.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  63.0  68.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  70.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   151.0 123.0 112.0 102.0  84.0  54.0  40.0  34.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.4  23.6  27.0  27.0  32.1  33.6  31.9  33.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        5.6%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.2%       36.8%       32.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.3%       19.0%       16.7%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       19.0%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       12.0%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%       25.3%       21.5%
 55kt / 36h        7.3%        9.1%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       14.0%       16.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        3.8%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       31.4%        8.4%       19.9%