Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191127 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  30.2  34.1  43.1  45.8  49.5  56.7  66.6  U  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 112.0 114.0 113.0 113.0 111.0 110.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  81.0  62.0  57.0  28.0   5.0 -11.0 -15.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.7  30.2  34.1  43.1  45.8  49.5  56.7  66.6  U  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.7%        5.9%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       24.2%       26.1%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       11.6%       12.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       11.6%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%        8.4%        6.5%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%        8.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        2.2%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        2.1%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.3%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        0.4%        1.0%