Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191127 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  30.7  33.8  38.1  42.5  47.9  48.1  51.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   127.0 105.0  52.0  29.0   3.0  -4.0 -16.0 -12.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.9  30.7  33.8  38.1  42.5  47.9  48.1  51.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        3.3%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       14.2%       16.6%       15.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%        7.6%        8.0%
 35kt / 24h        7.6%        7.6%        7.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%        4.7%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%        4.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%