Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191127 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    139.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  33.3  35.2  34.9  38.9  43.8  49.2  51.2  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 114.0 111.0 106.0 105.0 104.0 102.0 102.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  99.3  94.6  94.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  52.0  29.0   3.0  -4.0 -16.0 -12.0  -8.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.4  33.3  35.2  34.9  38.9  43.8  49.2  51.2  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.7%       20.4%       30.0%
 25kt / 24h       52.7%       52.0%       52.4%
 30kt / 24h       38.1%       39.6%       38.8%
 35kt / 24h       27.7%       39.6%       33.7%
 40kt / 24h       21.6%       31.2%       26.4%
 45kt / 36h       20.8%       20.5%       20.7%
 55kt / 36h        9.6%        7.8%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        5.9%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        1.1%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%        1.2%        3.4%