Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191128 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  24.0  28.4  31.8  27.7  27.8  30.1  31.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  77.0  76.0  79.0  90.0  94.0  80.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   0.0 -15.0 -24.0 -25.0 -35.0 -33.0 -13.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  26.2  24.0  28.4  31.8  27.7  27.8  30.1  31.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.8%       14.5%       19.7%
 25kt / 24h       28.9%       33.5%       31.2%
 30kt / 24h       25.4%       26.1%       25.7%
 35kt / 24h       25.4%       26.1%       25.7%
 40kt / 24h       10.4%       18.0%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h       15.2%       10.7%       13.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.8%        3.8%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        7.3%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        1.4%        2.1%