Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191129 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  27.4  22.8  19.2  21.4  26.5  26.1  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  78.0  93.0 106.0  88.0  70.0  65.0  70.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         92.0  89.6  89.6  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -12.0 -28.0  -9.0 -33.0 -41.0 -19.0  -3.0  U  U VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.3  27.4  22.8  19.2  21.4  26.5  26.1  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        7.2%        7.7%
 25kt / 24h       18.9%       28.6%       23.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.4%       21.0%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.4%       21.0%       16.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       12.1%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%        9.6%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.4%        3.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        8.2%        9.0%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.7%        2.0%        4.8%