Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191130 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    135.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  21.9  19.6  24.4  26.8  28.3  27.5  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0 114.0 111.0 109.0 107.0 106.0 103.0  96.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -40.0 -38.0 -25.0 -61.0 -52.0 -11.0  -6.0 -11.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  51.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.3  21.9  19.6  24.4  26.8  28.3  27.5  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.9%       20.7%       22.8%
 25kt / 24h       45.5%       49.2%       47.4%
 30kt / 24h       45.5%       44.8%       45.2%
 35kt / 24h       45.5%       44.8%       45.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       31.9%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h       20.9%       17.1%       19.0%
 55kt / 36h       11.0%        7.2%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%       14.2%       14.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        1.5%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        0.0%        2.1%