Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    120.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.7  29.2  32.2  34.1  40.3  41.5  39.7  44.2  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  57.0  46.0  29.0  15.0  11.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.5  70.1  57.4  44.4  39.3  34.6  33.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  -3.0   0.0  -5.0 -27.0  -1.0   9.0  34.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.7  29.2  32.2  34.1  40.3  41.5  39.7  44.2  N  N  U  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%