Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191204 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  36.7  35.7  37.6  38.7  36.9  32.8  30.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  19.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  77.7  74.6  71.5  70.0  70.0  73.0  79.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  28.0  24.0   9.0  -4.0  15.0  33.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  36.4  36.7  35.7  37.6  38.7  36.9  32.8  30.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%