Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191204 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    116.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  42.1  45.2  46.3  42.8  38.6  38.8  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  12.0   8.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  78.0  73.6  69.4  72.2  78.0  93.0 102.4  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  50.0  44.0  25.0  14.0  17.0  21.0   7.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  48.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.3  42.1  45.2  46.3  42.8  38.6  38.8  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%