Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292019 191205 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.0  27.5  21.9  19.7  18.6  17.3  14.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  35.0  41.0  33.0  26.0  38.0  50.0  54.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        111.6 123.6 137.0 130.1 117.4 117.4 134.6 140.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  -5.0   3.0  19.0  28.0  36.0  40.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  32.6  29.0  27.5  21.9  19.7  18.6  17.3  14.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.2%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        2.5%        4.0%