Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191222 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      6.70    139.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.4  23.5  27.2  26.9  27.0  27.6  26.4  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  15.0  18.0  35.0  33.0  35.0  44.0  54.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  69.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.4  23.5  27.2  26.9  27.0  27.6  26.4  27.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       13.7%        9.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.9%       16.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%        5.5%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        8.0%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        2.8%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        7.2%        6.8%        7.0%