Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191222 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.90    136.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  15.0  15.6  19.9  22.5  22.9  22.4  19.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  60.0  50.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 115.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  41.0  43.0  43.0  23.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.2  15.0  15.6  19.9  22.5  22.9  22.4  19.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        4.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.6%       28.9%       20.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       11.4%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       11.4%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%        5.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.6%       30.7%       21.2%
 55kt / 36h        7.5%       12.5%       10.0%
 55kt / 48h       16.2%       15.1%       15.6%
 70kt / 48h       10.1%        5.9%        8.0%
 65kt / 72h       16.4%       14.3%       15.3%