Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50    134.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  21.5  22.7  24.0  23.1  20.3  18.6  18.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  50.0  49.0  54.0  56.0  34.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3 112.9 115.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  43.0  23.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  11.0  -2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.7  21.5  22.7  24.0  23.1  20.3  18.6  18.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        7.2%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       16.0%       34.4%       25.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%       18.3%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       18.3%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%        8.2%        6.0%
 45kt / 36h       10.4%       31.6%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       15.0%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.0%       14.8%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        5.2%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%       11.1%        8.7%