Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.6  22.5  22.4  21.2  21.7  23.6  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  86.0  92.0  84.0  38.0  32.0  32.0  48.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  94.8  93.0 100.5 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  16.0 -10.0  -9.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.1  22.6  22.5  22.4  21.2  21.7  23.6  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        6.2%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h       17.4%       34.1%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.8%       16.6%       13.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       16.6%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        8.4%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       23.5%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       10.6%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%        8.4%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        3.8%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.6%        7.5%        8.5%