Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  22.5  22.3  21.1  18.8  23.3  20.3  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  93.0  96.0  47.0  29.0  36.0  47.0  52.0  N  F  F  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0  91.6  84.4  99.4 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0 -11.0  -9.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  26.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.9  22.5  22.3  21.1  18.8  23.3  20.3  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%       12.3%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       22.2%       39.7%       30.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       24.9%       18.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       24.9%       15.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%       11.1%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        7.4%       29.0%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.7%       15.7%       10.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.6%       13.1%       13.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.5%        5.6%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%        7.3%        6.9%