Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP302019 191226 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    118.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    30    36    42    48  6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  24.4  32.5  35.8  40.7  42.3  47.0  49.0  F  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   5.0   2.0  14.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.4  54.8  47.7  41.1  38.0  35.0  32.2  29.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  38.0  36.0  22.0  34.0  31.0   9.0   1.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  51.0  50.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.6  24.4  32.5  35.8  40.7  42.3  47.0  49.0  F  N  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%